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September 2022: One Click Crypto Report

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Performance analysis of the cryptocurrency market, 5 trading apps and One Button Capital's AI bots.

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One Button Capital
October 6, 2022
Oct 6

Welcome, to the September OB Capital Report. Inside you will find:

  • Market Summary of September 2022
  • Ethereum’s Post-Merge Turmoil & A Macroeconomic Outlook
  • Performance Review of 5 Online Crypto Trading Bot Platforms
  • AI Success Rate In Spotting Tops and Bottoms Of The Market
  • OB Capital trading performance during September
  • Historical Track Record & Daily Performance Analysis
  • Product Updates & Plans For October

Part 1: Market Summary

In September there was a lot of contrast in the performance of crypto assets. Bitcoin remained neutral during the ‘historically worst month’ for the currency and lost just -3.70% at a $19,458 monthly close.

Ethereum was looking strong in the days before the highly anticipated ‘Merge’, but eventually crashed back down, and even recorded the worst performance across the top 10 crypto coins at -15.40%, closing at $1,346.

The biggest winner in the list is XRP, which gained +47.10% in September, making it the 6th largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Overall cryptocurrency performance for September 2022 (taken on Sep 30 at 23:59 UTC). Source: CoinCodex

Global cryptocurrency market capitalization

As a whole, the crypto market closed below the $1T market cap, with Bitcoin taking a 38.76% share. Overall 44% of the cryptocurrencies recorded a positive net gain in September, while 56% lost value.

Market data for September 2022 (taken on Sep 30 at 23:59 UTC). Source: CoinCodex

Bitcoin’s price action

Bitcoin (BTC) started the month at $20,124 and consolidated until Sep 6, when the asset dropped by -7.11%. After the US Dollar index fell by 1%, Bitcoin started a rally and recorded its first +10% day in months, eventually reaching a month’s peak at $22,697. After the U.S. CPI data update on Sep 13, BTC started to fall down back rapidly.

In the second portion of the month Bitcoin sidelined between $18,400 and $20,200, closing the month below the $20k psychological level. In comparison to previous years, this September is Bitcoin’s BEST since 2016, when the asset returned +7.43%.

October and November are usually the asset's best-gaining months, so we will see if history repeats itself again.

Chart of Bitcoin’s price history between Sep  1 - Sep 30. Source: TradingView

1.1 Ethereum’s Post-Merge Turmoil

In last month's issue, we anticipated Ethereum's biggest upgrade to date: 'the merge.' This was the event that saw the entire Ethereum network switch from the Proof-of-Work mining model to the significantly less energy-intensive Proof-of-Stake model.

The merge was completed successfully on September 15 and, much to the surprise of many went off without a hitch. The Merge is more than just a significant reduction in the energy required to run the network; it represents an important step on Ethereum's path to increasing transaction volume and lowering costs without jeopardizing network security. While the upgrade hasn't yet solved scalability issues, the merge lays the groundwork for future scalability gains.

Chart of Ether’s price history between Sep  1 - Sep 30. Source: TradingView


The Merge's success was just priced in when global economic data soured the market. ETH's price dropped by -15.40%. was likely exacerbated by SEC Chair Gary Gensler's statement that tokens of Proof of Stake blockchains, such as Ethereum, could become classified as securities, attracting regulator scrutiny to the Ethereum ecosystem.

The split in the Ethereum blockchain will also result in two competing versions, one using the newer PoS model and one supported by miners who prefer the older PoW model.

While some cryptocurrency exchanges refused to recognize the older chain after September 15, ETC Group has launched an ETP for any investors holding ZETH at the time of the Merge that will see them receive free Proof of Work tokens (ZETW) on a 1:1 basis, effectively doubling their holdings.

1.2 A Macroeconomic Outlook

Each month we take a page to analyze the global economic picture across other risky assets. This helps us have a better understanding of how crypto performs on a macro scale and how closer are we to mass adoption.

SP500

In September the SP500 index recorded a net loss of -8.30% and showed a similar reaction to the negative US CPI data as Bitcoin. The BTC Pearson Correlation (30D) remained around 0.8 out of 1, indicating that the two investments are still trading at almost identical trends.

Chart of SP500’s price history between Sep 1 - Sep 30. Source: TradingView

Commodity Markets

Energy prices fell by -8.1% in September, led by natural gas Europe -by 15.6% and crude oil -by 8.1%. Non-energy prices fell -by 1.7%. Agricultural prices eased +0.8%. Food prices changed little as a group as a +6.9% increase in grains was balanced by a -3.8% fall in edible oils. Beverage and raw materials declined by -0.5%  and -4.8%, respectively. Fertilizers gained +6%. Metal prices dropped by -5.7% with declines across the board, except nickel. Precious metals declined by -4.6%.

Source: WorldBank.org

Part 2: Research

This month we dedicate our research to the performance of AI trading bots. To do so, we are going to look at other leading trading apps and see how our best bots perform against the competition. In the second and third articles, we are going to give a completely new outlook on how effective and efficient is AI in scalping the local extremums and outperforming the market consistently.

2.1 Performance Review of 5 Online Crypto Trading Bot Platforms. One Button Capital AI vs Other Bots.


Last month we delivered extensive research on the state of the wealth management market in crypto. There we focused more on institutional investing as that is one of the fastest-growing liquidity providers right now.

This time we are going to look at retail trading apps, which utilize different automation in the quest to earn more money in crypto. As a provider of an application of this type, we want to compare how our technology differs and performs against other tools on the market.

The List:

Below are the five crypto trading platforms we chose for our analysis.

1. One Button Capital

One Button Capital is a global investment management firm specializing in data-driven cryptocurrency portfolio optimization using AI technology. The company provides a trading app for retail investors. Inside users can get access to over 8 unique machine-learning trading bots that can trade on over 50 cryptocurrency markets. All bots are created by the OBC team.

2. Zignaly


Zignaly is a crypto copy trading software with profit sharing. The platform is used by over 430k investors and has a rich assortment of trading strategies which are provided by expert traders or teams that design automation tools (trading bots that users can copy).


3. Bots.io


Bots.io offers a selection of automated trading robots for cryptocurrency markets that are accessible directly in their app. These bots are developed by independent developer teams and are unique in technology and investment strategy.

4. Stoic.AI (Long Only Strategy)


Stoic.AI is a crypto trading app that rebalances an investor’s portfolio once a day. It diversifies the funds across several chosen crypto coins. Stoic’s algorithm combines capital-weighted and momentum approaches that are supported by machine learning models.

5. Osom.Finance (Crypto Autopilot)


Osom is a crypto trading app provider that aims to diversify its investors' portfolios using artificial intelligence smartly. The name of their trading tool is “Crypto Autopilot” and acts as a trading bot that automates all trades.

Measuring Performance (Key Metrics To Look At)

In order to fully measure the trading performance, we would need to introduce concepts like benchmark strategies, risk factors, series regressions, risk-adjusted performance, and much, much more. There is certainly a time and place for that, but for simplicity purposes, we will look at just the most important things:

  • Net Returns
  • Performance against BTC as a benchmark

For consistency purposes, we will take the top 3 trading bots of each platform (except the wildcards) and average out their performance for the last four quarters. We will analyze the timeframe from Oct 01 2021 until Sep 30, 2022, as this is exactly 12 months and it is the most reliable period for the current market.

Results

Below is a comparison chart of the 12 months' cumulative performance of each trading bots provider.



The benchmark cryptocurrency Bitcoin has gone down by -55.66% in the last 12 months, with Q2 of 2022 being one of the most devastating in the asset's history. Overall 11 out of the 14 trading bots providers managed to outperform BTC, with 8 of them returning an average positive net gain on their chosen top 3 bots.

The most profitable services on the list are One Button Capital at a +39.69% gain on the top 3 trading bots (on average), Skyital with +26.92%, and C R Y P T O P U N K (bots provider) with +24.37% net profit.

If we group each trading strategy mix to its respective provider, we can see that Bots.io overtakes Zignaly for the second place, while OB Capital stays on top. This comparison is not as reliable as the previous breakdown, as it does not take an equal amount of trading bots from each provider, but it is still valuable for giving an overall idea.

Finally, we are going to provide a detailed breakdown of the chosen strategies and analyze how they differ and if there is a certain trademark that is more profitable than the rest.

A full list can be seen on the next page of the report, including each of the top 3 trading bots for each service and their cumulative performance throughout the last 12 months on a quarterly base.

Take notice that the MDD is calculated based on quarterly data, so there might be some mismatch with the true live performance at a given month.

Breakdown

We are going to pay extra detail to the most prominent trading strategies or bot providers as a whole.

Most Profitable Individual Bots
The biggest winners from the list are two Ethereum Classic (ETC) bots. In the last twelve months, Skyital’s (ETC) bot and OB Capital’s Performer v2 (ETC) were just amazing. The former had a net profit gain at +135.84%, while P2 returned a nice 72.84%. Skyital uses futures trading, while OBC’s Performer v2 can only spot trade with long positions. Thanks to its AI-powered mechanism P2 benefited to the fullest from the uptrend periods alone.

C R Y P T O P U N K’s Futures (BTC) bot and Fluctus Technologies’ Fluctus were quite close for the joined third place with +47.83% and +42.10% ROI, respectively. CP uses futures trading for its automation, while Fluctus is a “trend trading” crypto bot. At one point Fluctus was even up to +69.87% in Q2, 2022.

*Note On Futures Trading:
Given that OB is looking into futures strategies, we spent time on Zignaly reviewing all of their strategies' performance over two separate periods. We saw how volatile it is, and how quickly a strategy that was previously performing well can have negative returns in several price cycles.

However, there may be value here if futures strategies act as a hedge to spot trading positions. For example, if the majority of the users' bots buy, the futures bot may be able to hedge that position with a small short position. This would be quite revolutionary, as we have not seen any competitors in the space use dynamic hedging.

The data below is calculated out of 136 individual trading strategies on Zignaly. The data shows quarterly performance and not cumulative ones. The average quarterly performance of futures strategies (both mean and median) has been negative for a whole year. 

Source: Zignaly Market Research September Update

Conclusion

Cryptocurrencies remain one of the riskiest assets to invest in, but also one with the highest profitability potential. In this research paper, we took five of the best trading automation software providers and compared their trading bots over the last four quarters using statistical analysis.

The results show that, on average, the best-performing strategies of each company are capable of beating the benchmark asset - Bitcoin. Overall, 8 out of 14 bots returned a positive net gain in the last 12 months, with One Button Capital’s top 3 strategies being first in the list with +39.69% ROI.

Futures trading bots have the potential to be used as a hedge against spot trading strategies. This would combine the advantages of shorting during a downtrend with the more concrete long-only strategies that work during uptrends but fail during bear markets.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This report is strictly educational and does not provide investment advice, solicit the purchase or sale of any assets, or encourage readers to make financial decisions. Please use caution and conduct independent research before making any kind of investment in the cryptocurrency market.

2.2 AI Success Rate In Spotting Tops and Bottoms Of The Market

Buy low and sell high is one of the most well-known phrases in the investment world. An investor can gain consistent profits by doing nothing else than buying at the lowest point of the market and later selling at the peak every few months (if an asset is trending up).

And while this is a good marketing catchphrase, the reality is that the implementation is not easy. So hard that 95% of traders that try to time the market’s extremums end up losing money. But there is another way.

The Solution

A winning buy low, sell high stands out in two areas:

  • Accuracy in predicting the local bottom and top
  • The actual execution of the trade in real-time

The cryptocurrency market is unique in many trades, but one of them is that it runs 24/7/365, unlike traditional markets. That gives investors more opportunities but also a chance to miss them, as no one can stay in front of the monitor for 15+ hours daily, let alone non-stop.

The solution is automation. A crypto trading bot that can monitor the prices day and night and execute trades when there is a possibility.

Many software tools provide the benefits of 24/7 monitoring, but what differentiates the great from the good bots is their accuracy in predicting price movement and finding local bottoms/tops.

AI Trading Bot Accuracy

Automations are not built the same. The constantly evolving crypto market requires an adapting strategy to tame it, and our research has conducted that AI trading bots work better in the long run. Both in outperforming the market and beating its trading bots competitors.

In the following study, we will look at one specific AI from One Button Capital that stood out in the last two years — Performer v2. We will dive deep into the AI trading bot’s accuracy in spotting local bottoms and tops and how well it timed them.

Case Study #1: Performer v2 vs. BTC

The first market pair that we will look at is BTC: USDT. Bitcoin is the largest digital asset and one of the favorite markets for the Performer v2 strategy.

Dec 2021 — Feb 2022

Performer v2 trading history against BTC: USDT between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022.


Starting off, the AI was launched on Nov 24, 2022. After carefully folding in the first several days (avoiding the local top trap) it started trading at a nice profit in the consolidating market.

Eventually, Bitcoin found a local bottom at $33,066 on Jan 24, 2022. The AI bought at the lowest point with precision.

Mar 2022 — May 2022

Performer v2 trading history against BNB: USDT between Mar 2022 and May 2022.

Between March and May 2022 Bitcoin was trying to find a top at around the $48,200 resistance level. Initially, the AI tried to buy at that price, but it was quick in realizing that this will be the market’s extremum and SOLD.

Jun 2022 — Aug 2022

Finally, June sent BTC  to new extremes, dumping the leading cryptocurrency to $17,599 on Jun 19, 2022. Performer v2 placed a BUY order near the dip. Contrary to ETH, there was no surging in July and August. The actual top was back at the end of May, when the AI SOLD its current position at around $31,753 on May 31, 2022.

9-Months Overall

The biggest challenge for Performer v2 was Bitcoin (BTC). Locating the three market bottoms was an effortless task for the AI, as well as the initial market crash when the bot got launched. The one tricky instance came on April 1 (an AI joke maybe) when the bot bought slightly before selling near the 3-month top (in reverse it would be a mistake). Overall, the trading robot succeeded here with 100% accuracy as well.

Case Study #2: Performer v2 vs. Ethereum

The next market pair that we will look at is ETH: USDT. Ethereum is the second largest digital asset and one of the favorite markets for the Performer v2 strategy.

Dec 2021 — Feb 2022
We will divide the time frames by a 3-months period or around 90 days. That is a long enough period to draw meaningful conclusions if a trading bot successfully finds the extremums in price.

Performer v2 trading history against ETH: USDT between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022.


The Performer v2 strategy began trading on Dec 3, 2021 — right before the start of a massive sell-off. Since the initial capital of the bot is allocated into stablecoins, the only possible first trade is a BUY order, and doing that here would have been a big blunder. The AI did not fall for it.

The bot successfully predicted that this would be the highest point of the market for some time ahead and patiently waited. After some consolidation, ETH started dropping again, eventually reaching the lowest point of $2,160 on Jan 24, 2022. The bot bought at the perfect time on the correct candlestick.

Mar 2022 — May 2022

Performer v2 trading history against ETH: USDT between Mar 2022 and May 2022.

Going further in the year there was an increase in Ethereum’s price. The asset peaked at $3,580, and Performer v2 was successful again in selling at the market’s top within a few market scans*. Afterward, the Crypto Domino Effect began with the downfall of Terra’s stablecoin UST. In the Mar-May analysis period, the market found a bottom at $1,798, and our AI perfectly scalped the opportunity to BUY.

(*) The Performer v2 strategy scans the market once every 4 hours or four candlesticks on the hourly graphs in this article.

Jun 2022 —Aug 2022

Performer v2 trading history against ETH: USDT between Jun 2022 and Aug 2022.


Moving into Jun 2022, we can see that the trouble for Ether was not quite over. The asset continued to fall, reaching an unprecedented (for recent months) bottom at $880. Performer v2 placed a BUY order on the absolute minimum!

July came as big relief to investors, as the whole crypto market stabilized and started trading upward. Our AI managed to buy at several local bottoms and sell on local tops. When the market reached its 3-month peak at $2,029 on Aug 14, Performer v2 placed a SELL order.

9-Months Overall

In total, the Performer v2 AI scalped all three 3-months tops (selling at two, avoiding a trade in one) and bottoms (buying at all three dips). This gives the bot 100% accuracy against Ethereum in detecting the local extremums.

Case Study #3: Performer v2 vs. BNB

The following trading pair we will analyze is BNB: USDT. The Binance coin is the 5th largest cryptocurrency by market cap and is one of the most successfully traded markets for several of our bots.

Dec 2021 — Feb 2022

Performer v2 trading history against BNB: USDT between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022.

This Performer v2 bot was launched on Nov 24, 2021. Similarly to the Ethereum case study, BNB started dropping shortly after the AI went life, so the best decision was to “fold” and wait for a proper opportunity.

After accurately buying at a few local minimums through its first 3-months journey, the P2 bot found the lowest point at $324 on Feb 24, 2022.

Mar 2022 — May 2022

Performer v2 trading history against BNB: USDT between Mar 2022 and May 2022.

Between March and April, BNB saw steady price growth with not much extreme movement. The highest point of the market was at $453 on Apr 2, 2022, and Performer v2 sold at the highest candlestick.

Afterward, the price of BNB started to fall, eventually reaching the lowest point in this 3-months cycle at $217 on May 12, 2022. The AI bought within one market scan time at the dip.

Jun 2022 — Aug 2022

Performer v2 trading history against BNB: USDT between May 2022 and Aug 2022.


In June, the prices started to fall again, reaching a new low at $182 on Jun 18, 2022. The AI scalped the dip like it was nothing.

After that the cryptocurrency market started to recover and in July the BNB: USDT pair reached a local top at $335 on Aug 10, 2022. Performer v2 did indeed place a SELL order there, but it was not 100% certain about where the price would head out next.

9-Months Overall

For BNB, Performer v2 was successful as well with 100% accuracy over a 9-months period. The bot bought at all three 3-month market bottoms and sold on the two peaks that offered the opportunity.

Conclusion

One of the trademarks of a successful trading strategy is its capability to predict local extremums. In this research article, we took the most successful AI trading bot at OB Capital — Performer v2, and we analyzed its accuracy in localizing the bottoms and tops on three market pairs across periods of 3 months. Our analysis showed that 100% of the time, the P2 AI is successful in figuring out the dips and peaks on a quarterly basis.

Request access to the One Button Capital app and try Performer v2 yourself.

2.3 More Research

AI Trading Bot: Understanding Its Behavior And Decision-Making Patterns
15 Crypto Funds 2021–2022 Performance
How Computers Became Better Wealth Managers Than Humans
Will Regulations Kill Decentralized Finance Or Save It?
World’s Richest Gamblers (Investors) — Making Billions With Mathematics
How Did AI Respond To The Terra (LUNA) Meltdown?
The Impact Of Inflation On The Cryptocurrency Market
Time In The Market Vs. Timing The Market: Why Even Long-Term Holders Lose Money In Crypto
Investing During A Bear Market: How To Not Lose Your Money In Crypto
Can Bitcoin Solve The Money Problem? Why Money Is Dead.
DeFi Trends In 2022 Web3. Is The Future Of Finance On The Blockchain?
Should You Invest In Funds? Real State Of Wealth Management Market in 2022.
What Strategy Saves The Most Money During a 50% Ethereum Drop?
Making Money In Crypto: 10 Proven Tactics For Effective Cryptocurrency Investing.
AI/ML In 2022. Why investing in tech projects will set you apart for a lifetime.
AI In Cryptocurrency Trading: The Big Picture
Can AI Outperform The Bear Market?

Part 3: OBC Performance

In this section we are going to share the overall performance of One Button Capital, beginning with the aggregated returns from September 2022.

Data from Sep 1, 2022, 00:00 UTC to Sep 30, 2022, 23:59 UTC. Source: OBC app


Overall One Button Capital returned +0.40%, while BTC went down by -2.28% and ETH crashed by -14.05%.

3.1 Best-Performing AI Strategies

The most profitable AI trading bots in September were Horizon: +2.82%; Performer v2: +0.91% & Astral v2: -1.63%.

Table of the net return of the top 3 AI strategies at OBC in September 2022. Data Source: OBC app

3.2 Best-Performing Market Pairs

Below are the three most profitable trading strategies that made huge returns in September. Both Explorer and Performer v2 were excellent in catching the Ripple (XRP) rally and gained over +40% each. Additionally to this, P2 got a nice +33.67% boost against Quant (QNT).

September 2022 return of the best-performing market pairs and the strategy used for them. Source: OBC app

3.3 Historical Track Record

Outperforming the top two cryptocurrencies over the long run

One Button Capital vs. BTC Jan 15, 2021 - Oct 03, 2022. Source: OBC Internal Stats

The graph focuses on the overall average performance of all BTC trading strategies on One Button Capital. The AI-boosted BTC outshines the number-one crypto by over +80%


One Button Capital’s long-term results against Bitcoin.

OBC: +40.28%
BTC: -48.40%

One Button Capital’s long-term results against Ethereum.

One Button Capital vs. ETH Jan 14, 2021 - Oct 03, 2022. OBC Internal Stats

OBC: +214.57%
ETH: +4.94%


The AI-Boosted Ethereum strategy outperformed ETH by over +200% over the course of 19+ months.

Protecting against the most devastating crypto meltdowns

AI models that were trading on LUNA: BUSD and LUNA: USDT market pairs in May 2022 managed to exit the positions during the downward spiral movement at an average of $62.61 per LUNA.

It saved the investors from what could have been a -99.99999% loss.

It is worth noting that the AI models only use price and volume data for decision-making, demonstrating its ability to identify anomalies and react to black swan events. 

Read the full LUNA case study.

3.4 Trade History Analysis

Below is the September performance of Performer v2 versus leading cryptocurrencies.

AI vs. BTC

September results:
AI: +4.10%
BTC: -2.94%
Trades made: 20

Making just 20 trades in September, the Performer v2 model managed to outperform the Bitcoin market by more than 7% net of trading fees.

Trade history and performance chart on BTC: USDT, Performer v2 AI vs. Buy-and-hold, 01.09.2022–01.10.2022 


The two most remarkable trades are the Sep 9 BUY trade re-entering the market right before the pump to $22k and Sep 13 SELL prior to the -12% drop from $22.8k to $20k.

Between Sep 27 and Sep 30, the Performer v2 has been idle without taking new positions.

AI vs. ETH

September results:
AI: +0.41%
ETH: -13.97%
Trades made: 25

Ethereum price action in September didn’t quite follow Bitcoin and instead was subject to a post-merge selloff.

Despite the -13.97% decrease in ETH price, the Performer v2 AI model trading on ETH managed to break even this month with a small profit of +0.41%.

Trade history and performance chart on ETH: USDT, Performer v2 AI vs. Buy-and-hold, 01.09.2022–01.10.2022

In total, 25 trades were made by the model, and a few of them quite remarkably captured local maximums and minimums. Similarly to BTC, the AI has been idle since the last trade on Sep 27.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This report is strictly educational and does not provide investment advice, solicit the purchase or sale of any assets, or encourage readers to make financial decisions. Please use caution and conduct independent research before making any kind of investment in the cryptocurrency market.

AI vs. BNB

September results:
AI: +6.60%
BNB: +2.58%
Trades made: 17

Trade history and performance chart on BNB: USDT, Performer v2 AI vs. Buy-and-hold, 01.09.2022–01.10.2022

The BNB Performer v2 was less active this month, with just 17 trades. Yet, the model managed to land a few spot-on trades, making quite a brilliant swing move between Sep 15 and Sep 21.

No new trades were performed between Sep 27 and Sep 30.

AI vs. ADA

September results:
AI: +3.58%
ADA: -3.02%
Trades made: 35

The most active bot amongst all is trading ADA: USDT. It managed to land 35 trades in September ’22 and outperform the buy-and-hold strategy by 6.6%.

Trade history and performance chart on ADA: USDT, Performer v2 AI vs. Buy-and-hold, 01.09.2022–01.10.2022

Noticeably, most of the profits were made in the second half of the month when the market was in a downturn. It is also quite interesting that the last (6!) trades by AI are SELL trades. Looks like it really made sure to get rid of all the ADA until now. Is it really coming?

3.5 Daily Performance Analysis 

Earlier this month we shared a few insights on our Discord on the daily performance of our AI and opened the question of how good exactly is a trading bot in beating the market on a daily basis.

Our further research concluded that the topic is more sophisticated than it first looked at, and a more in-depth analysis of the data is required. We will share this information in the next monthly release in full detail on how everything is calculated.

For now, here is what the hypothesis looks like:

“One Button Capital AI trading bots are not just capable of outperforming the underlying asset over the long run. The bots also increase their efficiency in time, essentially increasing its daily dominance over the market in an uptrend fashion.”

Cumulative Dominance

Market outperformance of the best-performing Performer v2 bots (ETH, BNB, CAKE, UNI, CRV, ETC, FTM, LTC) indicates an obvious uptrend over time.

The day-to-day analysis of Performer v2 against Ethereum shows that the AI is outperforming the asset on more days than it is not. This is not raw profit/loss performance daily, but how much the bot outperforms (or underperforms) the market on any given day.

A scattered plot table with the same data can help us indicate the outliers more easily. Traditionally, the noise or data that is too far from the median can be ignored, but in finance, this is not quite the case.

The two +15% outperformance days of the AI that were back-to-back in January can be the difference between having an investor’s portfolio go down by -27.75% in two days or not. The highly concentrated data between -0.5% and +0.5% on the hand can be hypothesized as less relevant, but more research is needed.

In order to find out if there is an increase in daily outperformance, we used several statistical methods including a daily running average that is shown in the table below:

Daily running average outperformance for Performer v2 bots (ETH, BNB, CAKE, UNI, CRV, ETC, FTM, LTC). The market outperformance for all these pairs ranges between +0.11-0.36% daily. For the longest-running bots, we can see that the daily outperformance is quite consistent in the 0.21-0.24% range.

Does The AI Become More Efficient Over Time?

Furthermore, we tried to indicate a runtime relationship to daily outperformance using the trading data by utilizing two different models for the average performance.

While the results are indeed fascinating, the R-squared values of these two tables are way below the needed 0.7 for financial data. Also, there is one fundamental mistake in this type of working with percentages that almost everyone gets wrong. For this reason, we are working on the development of a dynamic model that catches the real amplitude in daily outperformance. A groundbreaking addition to investing.

A Strong Case

The best way to prove the hypothesis is actually pretty simple and can be made by just looking at a chart of an AI bot’s and the market’s performances. The area or distance between the two lines is actually how much more proficient a bot is, compared to the asset (or set of assets).

Despite the overall downtrend of the market, it is evident that the bot has gained more edge over time. Therefore it is logical to hypothesize that this does not just come from a static daily outperformance rate, but rather an increasing one.

This is also what we described as shadowing/mimicking in our research as one of the key behavior patterns behind an AI's success in outperforming the market.

A more reliable way of working with data (with an R-squared value of 0.8121) is the observation of this area and its trend. The test on Performer v2 versus CAKE shows a positive trendline in favor of our hypothesis,

Half of the battle is won, and we are most likely to fully support the hypothesis in our next report. It is of utmost importance to be very cautious when working with data and financial numbers. Many companies have misled their investors and followers by presenting wrong analyses, and we do not want to do that.

3.6 Community Feedback

Here we will share a couple of our most insightful feedback from the past quarter.

Significant long-term gains against two market pairs.

One of our investors shared his incredible 200+ days of returns using the Performer v2 strategy.

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

While both Ethereum and Uniswap lost over -40% during this period, the AI was capable of producing +36.62% gains against ETH: USDT and +30.54% against UNI: USDT.

Dominating even more markets.

Another one of OB’s investors shared his results against BNB: USDT and TRX: USDT, using the same Performer v2 strategy. 

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

Both of his bots accumulated huge returns, while BNB went down by -40.19% and TRX moved up by just +1.65%.

Additionally to this, he shared one of his most recent bots, which utilizes the P2 strategy as well.

In just 10 days, the AI managed to gain an edge over the market, and return +20.33% against FTM: BUSD while the pair was trading at +15.83% at the time of sharing.

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

“Pretty happy with the impact of the bots on the recent dip!” Part 2

Source: One Button Capital Discord.


Perfect example of how the bot trading mitigates market dips - this is for ADA: BUSD Performer V2” - Investor

On the performance from the left, we can observe a magnificent performance by the AI. Initially, the bot decided to hard “fold”, before jumping in on a sticking pattern from Aug 10 to Aug 13.

Afterward, another folding session happened in order to hold onto the gains before the dip in the market.

Shadowing 101

Source: One Button Capital Discord.


Above is an excellent example of what a prime trading AI’s performance should look like. After an initial “fold” to gain an edge on the dip of the market, the bot accumulated enough data to start its “shadowing” journey - returning +19.32% ROI in August, while the market went down by -14.88% over the same time period.

“Sold On Time”

Below is an exciting catch from one of the sell trades of the investor’s bots. The AI forecasted the red candlestick and sold it just on time in order to keep profits at a maximum.

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

“Also interesting: Bot screenshots 1-day difference. Look what the market did and how the bots managed to sell on time” - Noidea

“Lovely”

Incredible one-month adaptation from Performer v2 which doubled the market’s performance, returning +37.45% against BNB’s 30-day return of +17.47%.

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

“Lovely! This is my BNB: BUSD running for 1 month:” - Hubhub

Long-term Gains

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

On July 18, 2022, our investor Mr. Hubhub shared a testimonial of one of his longest-running bots that underwent the market collapse.

The AI was set to trade on ETH: USDT at the start of 2022.

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

It managed to save the looping -55.03% from being erased during the Ethereum crash.

Now, when the market is stabilizing the bot has plenty of capital to ride any upcoming uptrend.

“Some More Exploring”



Source: One Button Capital Discord.

Explorer was an absolute machine in July. In only 26 days after his debut, he gained up to +43.44% profits in its traded markets.

One way to assure that your crypto investing strategy is effective is if it can outperform to top 3 digital assets.

In the case of Explorer both Bitcoin and Ethereum stay in the shadow of the AI.


“Not bad??.. I'd say very good :)”
-Noidea

Litecoin Magic

Here comes one of the most groundbreaking trading performances of the year. The LTC: BUSD trading bot of an investor under the username Ezza absolutely crushed it in 2022. After a very quick adaptation period in January, the AI quickly gained shadow and managed to mimic Litecoin’s movement at a significant +100% margin.

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

If we look at absolute numbers here is what the investment looks like with a $10,000 hypothetical investment: Invested in January: $10,000 Litecoin at end of July: $4,524 Performer v2 at end of July: $14,268

That is 3.15x better than the asset’s performance or 315% times more money in the investor’s portfolio!

New To OBC And Already Killing It

“hey guys - I've been running MATIC: BUSD for 8 days and seeing some good results based on the above query will start posting more in the bot performance section, just fairly new so letting bots run a bit first, I've posted in the bot-performance section the MATIC bot” - Smethersslug

Source: One Button Capital Discord.


It is amazing when new investors start seeing immediate results. In this case, the user launched a Performer v2 AI against MATIC: BUSD. 

Source: One Button Capital Discord.

We can immediately see that during the first two days his trading bot folded from taking any actions. There was a small trade on July 25, but the AI then returned to fold status as the market dropped sharply in a single day (-21.56%).

On July 27, or five days infield the Performer v2 bot started shadow mimicking MATIC’s movement and over the course of several more days was up by +24.43% since creation, while the asset is up by only +3.86%.
We are looking forward to seeing how the AI will perform in August and the rest of the year.


To join the discussion on the One Button Capital Discord server, click
here.

Part 4: Company News

In this section, we are going to share the latest company news, including real-life events, product launches, and upcoming projects for the next month.

4.1 Previous Events

This summer, the company had a very successful marketing campaign in Asia. We attended four major events and networked with thousands of crypto enthusiasts and specialists. We also established several new partnerships that will be key for our future expansion in the eastern market.

4.2 Upcoming Events

In October, the company will be present at the following events:

  • Blockchain Economy Dubai (@Le Meridien, Airport Road – Garhoud on 4-5 October)
  • Crypto Expo Dubai (@Festival Arena – Dubai Festival City on 5-6 October)
  • Future Blockchain Summit (@ Dubai World Trade Centre on 10-13 October)

For November we have one thing on the schedule for now:

  • Token2049 in London

Moving forward we are looking to keep expanding our global reach. You can follow our campaigns by subscribing to our weekly newsletter. See you there.

4.3 Product Updates

This Month’s Updates

Crypto.com integration

In September, the first exchange integration we introduced was Crypto.com. It allows Crypto.com users to connect their account to the One Button Capital’s app via an API key.

FTX integration

The second exchange integration we introduced during this month was FTX. It allows users to connect their FTX accounts to One Button Capital’s app and trade the USD and USDT-based spot markets

Indicator for Binance “Spot & margin trading” expiration

To improve the transparency and experience for all of our investors that use Binance we have introduced an indicator that keeps track of the number of days before Binance automatically disables the “Spot and margin trading” permission on the particular API key.

Trusted IP addresses for Binance

During September, we introduced a set of IP addresses our investors can put as “Trusted IP” addresses on Binance in order to ensure that their “Spot & margin trading” permission isn’t automatically disabled by Binance.

Other updates

  • Improved trading and bot execution mechanism
  • Resolved bug with bots not getting removed when deleted from the archived bots’ section
  • Resolved bug with bot trades made chart not updating
  • Resolved bug when connecting a new exchange through “lite view” that didn’t allow the available stable coin balance to be retrieved from the exchange
  • Improved data security for sensitive data

Plans For Next Month

  • Improved stop-loss mechanism
  • Subaccount support for FTX
  • New flexible plan based on the high-water mark

4.6 Seed Round Update

One Button Capital continues seed fundraising to expedite the expansion of deep-learning asset management technology to retail and institutional markets. 

The remaining seed round allocation is $650,000, minimum check size is $100,000. The final date for submissions and LOIs is October 31, 2022. 

To participate or learn more, contact ir@onebutton.capital.

Final Word

With all the uncertainty present in the markets, we can still clearly identify a few long-term powerful forces affecting the wealth management industry:

  1. Economical forces: Retail capital inflow grows 2X faster than institutional. More and more retail investors are getting access to the technology that allows them to make investments. 
  2. Social forces: Investors, in general, are getting more financially educated and concerned about their wealth, increasing the demand for technology products that enable them to make educated financial decisions about their future. 
  3. Technological forces: Recent developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning allow for completely new use cases of this technology in financial markets. 

With these shifts happening in the background, we see an increasing demand for a simple and effective investment product for web3. Being a pioneer in AI-driven asset management of cryptocurrencies, One Button Capital aims to be on the cutting edge of the innovation and development of this rapidly growing market. 

Having dozens of institutional partners around the globe, we helped more than 20,000 users to be more effective crypto investors through our automated asset management app

And this is just the beginning.



All the best,
Max Yampolsky, CEO at One Button Capital,
ir@onebutton.capital

One Button in Media

One Button Resources

Subscribe to our newsletter to get updated on the latest news and price changes in crypto, as well as our most recent performance and product updates.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This report is strictly educational and does not provide investment advice, solicit the purchase or sale of any assets, or encourage readers to make financial decisions. Please use caution and conduct independent research.

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